Many consumers are wondering what will happen with home values over the next few years. Some are concerned that the recent run-up in home prices will lead to a situation similar to the housing crash 15 years ago.
However, experts say the market is totally different today. For example, Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, tweeted just last week on this issue:
“. . . We do need price appreciation to slow today (it’s not sustainable over the long run) but high price growth today is supported by fundamentals- short supply, lower rates & demographic demand. And we are in a much different & safer space: better credit quality, low DTI [Debt-To-Income] & tons of equity. Hence, a crash in prices is very unlikely.”
Price appreciation will slow from the double-digit levels the market has seen over the last two years. However, experts believe home values will not depreciate (where a home would lose value).
To this point, Pulsenomics just released the latest Home Price Expectation Survey – a survey of a national panel of over 100 economists, real estate experts, and investment and market strategists. It forecasts home prices will continue appreciating over the next five years. Below are the expected year-over-year rates of home price appreciation based on the average of all 100+ projections:
What Does This Mean for You as a Buyer?
With a limited supply of homes available for sale and both prices and mortgage rates increasing, it can be a challenging market to navigate as a buyer. But buying a home sooner rather than later does have its benefits. If you wait to buy, you’ll pay more in the future. However, if you buy now, you’ll actually be in the position to make future price increases work for you. Once you buy, those rising home prices will help you build your home’s value, and by extension, your own household wealth through home equity.
As an example, let’s assume you purchased a $360,000 home in January of this year (the median price according to the National Association of Realtors rounded up to the nearest $10K). If you factor in the forecast for appreciation from the Home Price Expectation Survey, you could accumulate over $96,000 in household wealth over the next five years (see graph below):
If you’re trying to decide whether to buy now or wait, the key is knowing what’s expected to happen with home prices. Experts say prices will continue to climb in the years ahead, just at a slower pace. So, if you’re ready to buy, doing so now may be your best bet for your wallet. It’ll also give you the chance to use the future home price appreciation to build your own net worth through rising equity. If you want to get started, let’s connect today.
As seen In Keeping Current Matters April 2022.
When it comes to buying a home, it can feel a bit intimidating to know how much you need to save and where to find that information. One of the services I pride myself on is providing clients with information so that they feel educated and empowered in making real estate decisions for their family. But you should know, you’re not expected to have all the answers yourself. I hope that I can be your trusted professional that can help you understand your finances and what you’ll need to budget for throughout the process. To get you started, here are a few things experts say you should plan for along the way.
Whether you are actively thinking about buying or selling a home right now or not, chances are you've been engaged in conversations about the Des Moines real estate market. Record low inventory in combination with record low rates make for great headlines nationwide and Des Moines is right in line with those reports. So, where do we go from here in 2022? What can we expect? Is it a good time to buy? To sell? Here is a bit more info from a trusted real estate source Keeping Current Matters that may help provide some clarity on what is projected:
Many analysts projected home price appreciation would slow dramatically in the fall of 2021 and then continue to soften throughout 2022. So far, that hasn’t happened. The major price indices are all revealing ongoing double-digit price appreciation. Here’s a look at their reports on year-over-year price appreciation for December:
Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA): 17.6%
S&P Case-Shiller: 18.8%
To show that they’re not seeing signs of softening, here’s a graph that gives the progression of all three indices for each month of 2021.
As the graph above reveals, last year, home price appreciation accelerated dramatically from January to July according to all three indices. Then, it began to decelerate in August when prices appreciated at a slower pace, but it didn’t decline. Many thought that would be the beginning of a rapid slowdown in the level of home price appreciation, but as the data shows, that wasn’t the case. Instead, prices began to level off for a few months before two of the three indices saw appreciation re-accelerate again in December.
To clarify, deceleration is not the same as depreciation. Acceleration means prices rise at a greater year-over-year pace than the previous month. Deceleration means home values continue to rise but at a slower pace of year-over-year appreciation. Depreciation means prices drop below current values. No one is forecasting that to happen.
In fact, the FHFA revealed that price appreciation accelerated in December in six of the nine regions it tracks. Case Shiller showed that appreciation accelerated in 15 of the 20 metros they report on. As Selma Hepp, Deputy Chief Economist at CoreLogic, explains:
“After some signs of slowing home price growth . . . monthly price growth re-accelerated again, indicating home buyers have not yet thrown in the towel.”
What Does This Mean for You?
Whether you’re a first-time purchaser or someone looking to sell your current house and buy a home that better fits your needs, waiting to decide what to do will cost you in two ways:
Mortgage rates are forecast to rise this year.
Home prices should continue to appreciate at double-digit levels for some time.
If you wait, rising mortgage rates and high home price appreciation will have a dramatic impact on your monthly mortgage payment.
Maybe the best thing to do is listen to the advice of Len Kiefer, Deputy Chief Economist at Freddie Mac:
“If you’re thinking about waiting until next year and that maybe rates are higher, but you’ll get a deal on prices - well that’s risky. It may be more advantageous to purchase this year relative to waiting until 2023 at this time.”
Hello my Des Moines Metro friends!
The media is talking about it, neighbors are talking about it and we're talking about it.
Common sense tells us that historic lows must go up eventually. But when and how much is the question...
Mortgage rates have increased significantly since the beginning of the year. Each Thursday, Freddie Mac releases its Primary Mortgage Market Survey. According to the latest survey, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has risen from 3.22% at the start of the year to 3.55% as of last week. This is important to note because any increase in mortgage rates changes what a purchaser can afford. To give you an idea of how rising mortgage rates impact your purchasing power, see the table --->>
How Can You Know Where Mortgage Rates Are Headed?
While it’s always difficult to know exactly where mortgage rates will go, a great indicator of where they may head is by looking at the 50-year history of the 10-year treasury yield, and then following its path. Understanding the mechanics of the treasury yield isn’t as important as knowing that there’s a correlation between how it moves and how mortgage rates follow. Here’s a graph showing that relationship over the last 50 years, see more --->>
This correlation has continued into the new year. The treasury yield has started to climb, and that’s driven rates up. As of last Thursday, the treasury yield was 1.81%. That’s 1.74% below the mortgage rate reported the same day (3.55%) and is very close to the average spread we see between the two numbers (average spread is 1.7).
Where Will the Treasury Yield Head in the Future?
With this information in mind, a 10-year treasury-yield forecast would be a good indicator of where mortgage rates may be headed. The Wall Street Journal just surveyed a panel of over 75 academic, business, and financial economists asking them to forecast the treasury yield over the next few years. The consensus was that experts project the treasury yield will climb to 2.84% by the end of 2024. Based on the 50-year history of following this yield, that would likely put mortgage rates at about 4.5% in three years.
While the correlation between the 30-year fixed mortgage rate and the 10-year treasury yield is clear in the data shown above for the past 50 years, it shouldn’t be used as an exact indicator. They’re both hard to forecast, especially in this unprecedented economic time driven by a global pandemic. Yet understanding the relationship can help you get an idea of where rates may be going. It appears, based on the information we have now, that mortgage rates will continue to rise over the next few years. If that’s the case, your best bet may be to purchase a home sooner rather than later, if you’re able.
Forecasting mortgage rates is very difficult. As Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, once said:
“You know, the fallacy of economic forecasting is don’t ever try and forecast interest rates and or, more specifically, if you’re a real estate economist mortgage rates, because you will always invariably be wrong.”
However, if you’re either a first-time homebuyer or a current homeowner thinking of moving into a home that better fits your changing needs, understanding what’s happening with the 10-year treasury yield and mortgage rates can help you make an informed decision on the timing of your purchase.
As seen in Keeping Current Matters Publication. 2/2/22
Historic low inventory means we need more homes to sell... so that you can move! :-) If you are on the fence about selling, let's chat, let's look at your equity, let's look at your absorption analysis for the market and let's find you a buy up home!
++++++ Keeping Current Matters.com Info.++++++++++
If you’re thinking about selling your house in 2022, you truly have a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity at your fingertips. When selling anything, you always hope for strong demand for the item coupled with a limited supply. That maximizes your leverage when you’re negotiating the sale. Home sellers are in that exact situation right now. Here’s why.
Demand Is Very Strong
According to the latest Existing Home Sales Report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), 6.18 million homes were sold in 2021. This was the largest number of home sales in 15 years. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for NAR, explains:
“Sales for the entire year finished strong, reaching the highest annual level since 2006. . . . With mortgage rates expected to rise in 2022, it’s likely that a portion of December buyers were intent on avoiding the inevitable rate increases.”
Demand isn’t expected to weaken this year, either. In addition, the Mortgage Finance Forecast, published last week by the Mortgage Bankers’ Association (MBA), calls for existing-home sales to reach 6.4 million homes this year.
Supply Is Very LimitedThe same sales report from NAR also reveals the months’ supply of inventory just hit the lowest number of the century. It notes:
“Total housing inventory at the end of December amounted to 910,000 units, down 18% from November and down 14.2% from one year ago (1.06 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 1.8-month supply at the present sales pace, down from 2.1 months in November and from 1.9 months in December 2020.”
The reality is, inventory decreases every year in December. That’s just how the typical seasonal trend goes in real estate. However, the following graph emphasizes how this December was lower than any other December going all the way back to 1999.
Right Now, Sellers Have Maximum Leverage
As mentioned above, when there’s strong demand for an item and a limited supply of it available, the seller has maximum leverage in the negotiation. In the case of homeowners who are thinking about selling, there may never be a better time than right now. While demand is this high and inventory is this low, you’ll have leverage in all aspects of the sale of your house.
Today’s buyers know they need to be flexible negotiators that make very competitive offers, so here are a few areas that could tip in your favor when your house goes on the market:
If you’re thinking of selling your Iowa house this year, now is the optimal time to list it. Let’s connect to discuss how you can put your house on the market today.
From: Keeping Current Matters, Inc. © 2018 | 7204 Glen Forest Drive Suite 204 Richmond, VA 23226 | 631-787-6200
Happy New Year my friends! 2022. Wow, that sounds like a good one to me. Whether it is cliche or not, I love the idea of a fresh new 364 days of dreaming and doing. If one of your resolutions is to buy or sell a home/investment in 2022, I'm here to help you check that resolution off your list in 2022! When life gets crazy, home is always home, and if you don't love yours, let's change that in 2022. Cheers to that and cheers to a wonderful new year waiting to be explored. Happy New Year!
From Keeping Current Matters national publication.
I've built my business by referral. What that means is I treat my clients how I would like to be treated, keep their best interests in mind when going through the home buying and selling process and enjoy the relationship well after the home is bought or sold. And you know what? Good people know other good people! That is why I love working by referral. My business has evolved over the years. I used to have a holiday party at my home for my clients the first few years. I figured that I'd been in all of their homes, they should come to mine. But then the business grew. And I started having my client appreciation holiday party in my Century 21 office space. We had snacks and drinks and pie. Lots of pie. Then 2020 hit and we decided we appreciated my clients even more with their kind hearted referrals. Despite covid, we still wanted to see them. So we created the 1st annual A|R Real Estate Holiday Client Appreciation Drive Thru Pie Palooza. How's that for a name? The premise: I appreciate you and want to recognize that. Whether you bought your house 10 years ago or this year. Whether you've never bought or sold a home with my assistance but referred loved ones to me. So... you choose a pie and order online at www.pickmypie.com. French silk is my personal favorite, but apple is available as well. Then on the day of the event, you swing through the Century 21 SRE parking lot, show me pics of your sweet family, throw them in the car with you, bring the new puppy, pick up one for your parents that sold their house last year and couldn't make it through or just take a moment to make us a part of your holiday season. I'll meet you at your car with the help of my sweet daughters (Who are also involved in this event from start to finish by being the cover models on the invite to the pie sticker to the pie delivery and thank you.). My girls or my parents (truly a family affair for me!) will get your order and give you the pie and I get to catch up and hear about all the cool changes you've made to the home since you bought it. I love seeing everyone and saying Hi. This year, over about a three hour timeframe, 126 pie loving peeps rolled through the Century 21 parking lot. Holiday smiles, cheer and laughter were in abundance. And I loved every minute of it. :-) Cheers to lovely clients, working by referral for a blessed business and all those new faces I'll get to meet in the coming year! Cheers!
Friends, here's an interesting read with something near and dear to my heart... buying a home (or two!) as a single person. Buying a home is always scary, but with the right professionals to guide you through, it can be empowering and definitely help with your long term financial planning with a wonderful asset to love and make your own! Take it from me, I've bought and sold several homes and it's a rewarding experience every time!
So... if you’re living on your own and looking to buy a home, know that you can make your dream a reality with thoughtful planning and the right team of experts. Research from Freddie Mac shows 28% of all households (36.1 million) are sole-person, and that number is growing. Over the past 40 years, the number of sole-person households has nearly doubled, and that’s a trend that’s expected to continue. According to Freddie Mac:
“Our calculation suggests that there will be an additional 5 million sole-person households in the United States by the next decade. This means 42% of the household growth will be contributed by sole-person households, . . .”
If you fall into this category, here are three tips to help you achieve your homeownership goals.
1. Know Your Credit Score
When you buy a home on your own, you have to qualify for your loan based solely on your own finances and credit history. Investopedia says:
“. . . lenders will be looking at just one credit profile: yours. Needless to say, it has to be in great shape. It is always a good idea to review your credit report beforehand, and this is especially true of solo buyers.”
It’s important to find out your score so you know where it falls. If you’re not sure if it’s strong enough or where to focus your energy to improve it, meet with a professional for expert advice on your individual situation.
2. Explore Down Payment Options
Next, look into down payment programs so you can get a feel for what you’ll need to save to buy a home. Rob Chrane, CEO of Down Payment Resource, explains:
“Buyers should discuss their program options with their loan officer and real estate agent to make sure they choose the program best suited to their personal needs.”
In this step, lean on the pros to determine what you’re eligible for and what’s right for you.
3. Think About Your Future Home and Your Needs
You should also spend time thinking about what you want. What type of home do you picture yourself in? To answer that question, Quicken Loans shares this advice:
“Think about your lifestyle, what you want out of your home and your needs. Is being close to work important? Do you need a lot of yard space? Do you want an extra bedroom that you can transform into a home office? Condo or detached home? Lots of space for entertaining? It’s all up to you (and your budget).”
Again, a professional can help you balance what you want and how much you should spend on your monthly housing costs to determine what type of home is right for you.
While buying a home solo can feel like a big challenge, it doesn’t have to be. If you lean on the professionals, they can help you navigate these waters and make sure you’re able to take advantage of the great opportunities in today’s housing market (like low mortgage rates) to buy your dream home.
The share of sole-person households is growing. If you’re looking to buy a home on your own, be confident that the dream is achievable. When you’re ready to begin your search, let’s connect so you have expert advice each step of the way.
From: Keeping Current Matters
Friends... Recently I have had the opportunity to work side by side a number of lovely downsizing, retiring, home changing in later years, estate home clients and so this topic was on my mind and I thought it may be a good post!
Retirement May Be Changing What You Need in a Home
The past year and a half brought about significant life changes for many of us. For some, it meant entering retirement earlier than expected. Recent data shows more people retired this year than anticipated. According to the Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis, 2021 saw a retirement boom:
“At least 1.7 million more older workers than expected retired due to the pandemic recession.”
If you’ve recently retired, your home may not fit your new lifestyle. The good news is, you’ve likely built-up significant equity that can fuel your next move. According to the latest Homeowner Equity Insights report from CoreLogic, homeowners gained more than $50,000 in equity over the past 12 months alone. That, plus today’s sellers’ market, presents a great opportunity to sell your house and address your evolving needs.
You Can Move Closer to the Ones You Love
The 2021 Home Buyers and Sellers Generational Trends report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) provides a look at the reasons people buy homes. For those reaching retirement age, the number one reason to buy is the opportunity to be closer to loved ones, friends, or relatives.
If you find yourself farther from your loved ones than you’d like to be, retirement and the equity you’ve built in your home may enable you to move closer to the people in your life who matter most.
You Can Find the Right Home for Your Needs
Not only can your equity power a move to a new location, but it can also help you purchase the right size home. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, says many homebuyers 55 and older choose to downsize – or buy a smaller home – when they make a purchase:
“Clearly from the age patterns, young people want to upsize, and the older generation is looking to downsize. . . .”
Whatever your home goals are, a trusted real estate advisor can help you to find the best option for your situation. They’ll help you sell your current home and guide you as you buy your next one while you move into this new phase of life.
If you’ve recently retired and your needs are changing, you’re not alone. Let’s connect so you can get a better sense of how to find a home that will match your situation.
Posted from KCM : Keeping Current Matters.
What Does the Future Hold for Home Prices?
If you’re looking to buy or sell a house, chances are you’ve heard talk about today’s rising home prices. And while this increase in home values is great news for sellers, you may be wondering what the future holds. Will prices continue to rise with time, or should you expect them to fall?
To answer that question, let’s first understand a few terms you may be hearing right now.
Here’s the forecast for the next few years:As the graph above shows, prices are expected to continue to rise, just not at the same pace we’ve seen over the last year. Over 100 experts agree, there is no expectation for price depreciation. As the arrows indicate, each number is an increase, which means prices will rise each year.
Bill McBride, author of the blog Calculated Risk, also expects deceleration, but not depreciation:
“My sense is the Case-Shiller National annual growth rate of 19.7% is probably close to a peak, and that year-over-year price increases will slow later this year.”
Ivy Zelman of Zelman & Associates agrees, saying:
“. . . home price appreciation is on the cusp of flipping to a decelerating trend.”
A recent article from realtor.com indicates you should expect:
“. . . annual price increases will slow to a more normal level, . . .”
What Does This Deceleration Mean for You?What experts are projecting for the years ahead is more in line with the historical norm for appreciation. According to data from Black Knight, the average annual appreciation from 1995-2020 is 4.1%. As you can see from the chart above, the expert forecasts are closer to that pace, which means you should see appreciation at a level that’s aligned with a more normal year.
If you’re a buyer, don’t expect a sudden or drastic drop in home prices – experts say it won’t happen. Instead, think about your homeownership goals and consider purchasing a home before prices rise further.
If you’re a seller, the continued home price appreciation is good news for the value of your house. Work with an agent to list your house for the right price based on market conditions.
Bottom LineExperts expect price deceleration, not price depreciation over the coming years. Let’s connect to talk through what’s happening in the housing market today, where things are headed, and what it means for you.
Keeping Current Matters Blog
I find joy in helping home buyers and sellers achieve their real estate goals, by equipping them with information to make empowered decisions on their real estate journey.